During the week, SS futures jumped initially and then pulled back, and the uncertainty in the stainless steel market remained significant [SMM Stainless Steel Futures Weekly Review]

According to SMM data, the most-traded SS contract showed a trend of jumping initially and then pulling back this week. As of 10:30 on August 15, the SS2510 contract was quoted at 12,990 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt WoW.

From a macro perspective, starting from August 12, 2025, China and the US have once again suspended the 24% tariffs imposed on each other for a period of 90 days, while maintaining the basic tariff rate of 10% unchanged. This extension, the second "truce" measure following the Geneva talks in May, aims to provide a buffer period for subsequent negotiations and prevent a full-scale escalation of the tariff war. The 90-day extension has won valuable adjustment time for the global supply chain. However, structural contradictions such as technology controls and market access issues remain insurmountable obstacles in future negotiations. On August 15, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repo operations, using a fixed quantity and interest rate tender method to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. Previously, on August 12, the PBOC net withdrew 46.1 billion yuan (with 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing and 114.6 billion yuan injected).

From a fundamental analysis perspective, during the week, as the SS futures broke through the previous bottleneck of 13,000 yuan/mt and strengthened, spot quotes also strengthened in tandem. Driven by the market sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, as well as the market confidence recovering amid the approaching September-October peak season, trading maintained a good momentum. Additionally, with relatively low arrivals of stainless steel during the week, social inventory further declined, marking the sixth consecutive week of decline in stainless steel social inventory. However, downstream terminals still have poor acceptance of high-priced stainless steel supplies. Coupled with the increase in stainless steel production schedules in August and the expected increase in supply, there is still some uncertainty in the market. The subsequent trend still requires close attention to the specifics of policy implementation and demand recovery.